1 - 2

Honduras has one of the highest incidences of poverty and inequality in the western hemisphere.  The situation of the poor, who usually live off small-scale agriculture in rural areas, was aggravated by the disaster caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998. After this massive loss of life and assets, Honduras embarked on a very ambitious Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS) in consultation with civil society and donors, agreeing to a set of actions aimed at reducing the incidence of extreme poverty by half by 2015.

The World Bank’s Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) for Honduras supported the PRS by contributing to the restoration of macro-economic stability and a sound framework for public sector financial management. Since 2003 the pace of growth has picked up with a forecast of over 5 percent for next year.  Core inflation has stabilized below 10 percent. The real exchange rate has remained fairly stable.  These improvements are largely attributable to the continued growth in remittances and strong export performance, particularly by the maquila sector.

Although the incomes of  50 percent of Hondurans remain below the poverty line, increased public spending on health and education has shown significant results. Over the past decade:

• Vaccination programs reached virtually the entire population;
• Maternal mortality fell from 182 per 100,000 live births to 108 per 100,000, a 38 percent reduction;
• Chronic malnutrition in children aged 1-5 fell from 44 percent in 1987 to less than 33 percent in 2001; and
• Primary school attendance rose from 78 percent in 1980 to 85 percent in 2002.

In 2005 Hondurans elected José Manuel Zelaya as President in the seventh successive peaceful, democratic change of government since 1982.  The Zelaya administration has made poverty reduction its top priority, endorsing the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper. The four pillars identified by the President for his administrative mandate (Jan. 2006 to January 2010) are:

• Equitable economic growth for employment generation
• Good governance through state modernization and civic participation
• Environmental protection and risk management
• development of human capital

CHALLENGES AHEAD

Honduras remains vulnerable to external shocks. The agricultural sector has lost about one third of its purchasing power in the past two decades, largely due to the decline in prices for bananas and coffee. Small farmers  were hardest hit. Honduras is susceptible to hurricanes and droughts. In 1998 Hurricane Mitch caused 5,750 dead and losses amounting to nearly 40 percent of GDP. 

Although Honduras’ trends on most indicators have been favorable for the past decade, the prospects for meeting the targets laid out in the Millennium Development Goals are uncertain.  Progress is on track for: universal primary enrollment; reducing maternal mortality by three-quarters; and reducing the share of the population without access to an improved water source by half.  However, current trends fall short in four areas:  reducing extreme poverty by half, reducing under five malnutrition by half, and reducing under five and infant mortality by two-thirds.

Further progress in achieving the MDGs in Honduras will require improvements in governance and in the quality of and access to economic and social services.  Bank studies have highlighted the importance of improvements in the quality of education.  They also argue that progress will need to be made in increasing rural productivity and diversifying the sources of rural incomes, since most  of the country's poor live in rural areas and are dependent on agriculture for their livelihood.

TASKS

Your table represents a team of development professionals working for a large International NGO. The Bank has invited your organization to design and implement a small project ($500,000 per year for 3 years) that will address some (but not all) of the needs and priorities identified by the national government and incorporated into the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper.

Use Cmap Tools collaboratively (and synchronously) to create a problem tree that illustrates the development challenges, priorities and opportunities present in this case.

Revise your problem tree by narrowing down the range of problems it depicts. Your problem tree should be sufficiently focused so that it can serve as the basis for a coherent project which will be implemented by your organization. Keep the discussion of quick wins in mind as you do your work. The CARE reading is also highly relevant to this portion of the exercise.

Post the URLs of your maps in the wiki. 

SECOND EXERCISE-DAY 2 [NEW GROUP MEMBERS]--The wiki pages for this exercise appear as a subpage for each of the six tables.